Positiontrading – Market is preparing next swing, coming soon

22:53 h GMT: It is amazing, whats going on at the moment. Market is @ all time high and preparing next move. This is obvious what we can see on both timeframes, the daily and the weekly. A lot of blue bars on the daily signaling professional activity.

40 Million people in Russia are preparing for the next nuclear war, US threaten Russia with direct war, Iraq, Turkey, Syria…

Deutsche Bank, Credit Suisse, Italian Dead Man under water Banks…

Market @ all time highs, this is NOT understandable and central banks market manipulation, this can not end well…

Till then being hedged is looking good and safe. My portfolio has a net long exposure but well hedged to the downside. If it is going up i will gain more, if it is going down, i will try to scale out long and to get a net short exposure. Time will tell the story.

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Momentaufnahme: Die nächste Stufe auf dem Weg nach unten

15:27 h GMT: Ich sorge mich um unsere Kinder, unser Land und unsere Freiheit. Für mich hat es den Eindruck, dass “alles” viel schwieriger, komplexer und unschöner wird und hoffe sehr, dass ich mich täusche.

Oh du geliebtes Deutschland

Der Zustand, den ich in meinem Heimatland Deutschland vorfinde, gefällt mir ganz und gar nicht. Ich habe ein Problem damit, dass mir politische Eliten und Medien immer wieder sagen, wie gut hier alles ist, aber ich selbst mit meinen eigenen Augen was deutlich Anderes sehe. Es geht hierbei nicht nur um den politischen Zustand – ich habe mich längst daran gewöhnt, dass meine Dienerschaft (die von mir gewählten Volksvertreter) alles tun, was einer anderen Elite nützlich ist um mir mitzuteilen, dass dies das Beste für mich als Herrscher = Souverän ist, Dafür wünscht man dann eine anständige Bezahlung, Immunität, beste Kontakte und Versorgung, um später als Lobby-Berater tätig zu werden. Pensionen und weitere Annehmlichkeiten darf das Souverän lebenslang weiter finanzieren.

Mir macht die Schwäche der deutschen Wirtschaft sowie die Friedenslage auf der Welt große Sorgen. Weiterlesen

Trading DO, General Market Overview – 29092016

14:22 h GMT: On September 22nd i bought Diamond Offshore Drilling @ 16,10 with a SL @ 13,03. It is a position second entry and yesterday this stock made a huge move of +7,31 % escorted with good volume (what i like). I have one more pending orders waiting to get filled (TSCO) and 9 different stocks (all long) in my portfolio. Although i mentioned to throw away my short legs in SPY – what i did most on Sept 9+10 – price action on 9th of September changed my mind (VIX up 40 % on a single day).

My portfolio is balanced, i have (unrealized) net profits and asking myself: What is the cycle?

As we can see on the weekly chart my cycle has not changed, we tested the former resistance (now support) and the answer remains: “confirmed breakout above resistance, play measured move to 2400, fake possible.”

Most traders get killed on moves like between 07.09.2016 till today (see daily chart). All the up and down moves are squeezing out most of us. If you watch the bigger picture, you should see that the big chances are more on the long side. You do not need to be Paul Tudor Jones to realize that market is in a trading range on the daily between 2110-2180 and doing what? Doing his job: preparing for the next “stage” of price reaction (either up or down). If it goes up (which has more probability) then the cycle has not changed and is still valid. If it goes down, it depends on price reaction (how deep, which news, Deutsche + Italian Banks, Bear Stearn Moments etc.)

If cycle changes, go with the new cycle. Time will tell the story.


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Trading LHA, RL, SPY, GILD, WFM – 13092016

16:30 h GMT: Today i closed LHA with a small profit, i call it a breakeven trade. I also closed my worst losing positions WFM (-0,696 R) and GILD (-0,593 R). Additionally i closed RL @ 100,19 with +0,28 R. RL was a good trade, i took out money a couple of times and realized more than 1R profit.

On the other side i reduced some SPY on the short side and my portfolio is well balanced with a slightly net short exposure. I lost on the long side and won more on the short side which is always better than the other way around.

VIX is making high jumps (up to +20 % when writing this) and controlling risks is key now. I believe that next few weeks will be very volatile and i prefer to be more defensive, time will tell the story.

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Trading TIF, SPY – 12092016

15:12 h GMT: TIF was stopped out @ 66,76 and the last protion brought a net profit of 0,383 R. This trade was a good one and i realised more than 1R with this trade.

I used the heavy decline to close more SPY shorts. I realised losses but small ones and reducing my exposure at all. My portfolio is balanced now and i am expecting more pressure to the downside, so why closing shorts?

  1. We should act like professionals and control our risks. With each profitable long trade taking out, my net exposure to the short side rises and therefore i am making rebalancing moves.
  2. Making Money is key, not gambling. The confirmed breakout to the upside changed my plan to most important key of throwing out the short legs. I significantly reduced my short expsure and i am slightly long now.
  3. I do expect a turnaround Tuesday tomorrow to the long side and that i plan to use to scale out of some of my longs. I will short more if i get my signals and will change my net exposure again to the short side if market gives me a chance.
  4. On the other hand we can not ignore the 96,9 % down move of Friday, Price Action is always king. May be market will change character, may be not. I will let my options open to both sides. We also have to realize that VIX had an up move of nearly 40 % in a single day on Friday.

Like always time will tell the story.

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Trading AAPL, SPY – 09092016

17:35 h GMT: AAPL was stopped out with a profit of 0,496 R, I took several times of profit with that stock and one of my better oes are closed now. I used the heavy decline today to take out some of my SPY shorts out (reduced 5% and remain 35% of my maximum position size). I closed the 5% with a loss but overall i am in profit. My net exposure remains short, my portfolio is well balanced and time will tell the story.

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Trading BMY, TSO – 08092016

22:12 h GMT: Last week my BMY trade was stopped with a -0,97 R loss. This week i bought TSO @ 77,07 with SL @ 65,50. Market has not made a clear decision. My net exposure is still short, time will tell the story.

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Trading STT, EMN, FAST – 01092016

14:16 h GMT: Last week i decided to close EMN and FAST with small porfits (0,54 R + 0,49R).

STT reached my target 3 and i realised by closing a small portion 0,506 R, it is the third time i am taking out money of this stock, a real good trade.

My net exposure remains short, market will decide for one or the other direction, playing still long to 2400 but time will tell the story.

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Aktienindizes & Öl

NameKursin %
Dow Jones18.090,00-0,44%
US Tech 1004.866,50-0,54%
E-Stoxx 503.068,00-0,63%
Öl (Brent)50,88+1,27%
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