I am rolling to new year and overall i am happy with the results. I did not lost this year and i am very thankful for that. Every year teaches every trader, especial in such crazy times where valuations are abnormal and central banks are playing this game for the first time. Every year the trader survices is a profit in know how and deepening sound financial knowledge.
KMB, WBA, CVS, JCI were bought back with profit. After my last fundamental research i was interested in all of these stocks at those price levels. But markets change and they are changing fast. Bitcoin had a high volatility this week and “corrected” over 30 % in 3 days! I would say that is a lot of implied volattility in this move. I don’t think that Bitcoin will implode, i do believe that we will have established cryptos in 10 years or so. They will be like paypal today, normal in our life. For KMB, WBA, CVS, JCI i will make new analysis in January and decide if i will follow these stocks or not. JCI i own and will follow definetly.
TEVA and M are the last portions of loosing trades. But both portions have brought premiums and gains so they help to reduce losses of loosing trades. TEVA just brought premiums but M brought premium and profit. I am always thankful having trades which reduce my losses. I spend years to to understand this hardest lesson to keep losses short. But now i am thankfull that i do write about losing trades and “prove” it to my self: I don’t care about losing trades and by closing them i protect myself both ways: I do not allow any single trade to cause high emotional and financial damage. I just close within my parameters and go to the next trade.
BIIB reached my target 1 and i closed 25 %. Pocketing money is ok on the way up, if it ever will a way up forver, you never know.
KR also reached target 1 and i closed 25 % too. Every time you take out money, you reduce your position and the loss which always can occure, especially in begiining stock moves.
I will watch the bond markets and OEX-PCR closely. I have absolute no idea what will happen next but i “feel” this: : In my 15 th year of real money trading i never had such economical circumstasnces: High Valuations of Stocks & Property, Central Banks buying everything (Bonds, Stocks, Metals), negative Interest Rates, declining income of the 99%, Crytocurrencies and so far so on. It feels “unreal”.
On the other side John Maynard Kaynes said: “Markets can stay longer irrational than we can stay solvent”. I for myself believe that i only can survive this game by
- accepting that i do not know what market will do next.
- having a plan and following it unfailingly
- looking for the footsteps of the smart money
I am rolling my long portfolio into next year but significantly reduced my options position. Although we have all time highs, i want to be reduced of having speculative positions in my portfolio like short naked put options. I don’t know if market will fall next year but i expect increasing volatility and more “roughness”, time will tell the story.
Good luck with your trading & happy new year.